Key US Open golf betting trends & factors

Winning Factors in the US Open

Analysing previous US Open`s provide us valuable insights into the factors that contribute to success. While each tournament is played at a different venue, the United States Golf Association (USGA) tends to set up the courses to be challenging. However, there have been exceptions when favourable weather conditions led to lower scores.

Driving Distance and Accuracy

Although accuracy off the tee is crucial due to narrow fairways and penal rough, the historical data suggests that length often outweighs accuracy. The bigger hitters tend to have an advantage by being closer to the green and using shorter irons for approach shots. Bryson DeChambeau’s 2020 victory at Winged Foot exemplified the significance of length despite hitting a limited number of fairways.

Greens in Regulation and Scrambling

The ability to hit greens in regulation and navigate challenging situations is paramount in the US Open. Scrambling, combined with solid ball-striking, has been crucial for recent winners. Finding greens consistently and effectively saving pars from difficult positions contribute significantly to a player’s chances of winning.

Strokes Gained Metrics

Strokes Gained statistics have gained prominence in golf analysis. Examining the average rankings and gains in each category over the past four US Opens, Tee-to-Green performance stands out as the most important metric. Approach shots and proficiency around the green also play significant roles. Putting, while important, does not overshadow the other aspects of the game in determining success at the US Open.

Course Correlation

Considering similarities between the Los Angeles Country Club’s North Course and Riviera, the host of the Genesis Invitational, previous winners at Riviera could provide useful insights. Identikit winners, who consistently perform well in the US Open despite limited success in other tournaments, have been observed. These specialists often thrive in the demanding conditions and unique challenges posed by the championship.

Recent high finishes

The past 10 winners of the US Open have all posted a top-15 finish in one or both of their previous two starts. This indicates that strong recent form is a solid indicator of success in the tournament.

Tough conditions

The US Open is known for its challenging nature, and players cannot rely on finding their game without prior preparation. The difficulty of the course and the tough conditions often catch out players who are not in good form.

Recent major form

A top-10 finish in either the US Masters or the US PGA Championship, or better yet, in both, has been a significant factor for US Open winners. Recent performance in major tournaments is seen as a strong indicator of potential success.

Leading contenders for the US Open 2023

Scottie Scheffler: The world number one, Scottie Scheffler, has been playing exceptionally well from tee-to-green, consistently finishing in the top-12 in all his tournaments this year. However, his putting has been a concern, with recent performances ranking below average. Strong putting has not been essential in the US Open, but the last four winners have all finished with a positive Strokes Gained Putting figure.

Jon Rahm: The world number two has had recent successes with a victory at Riviera and the US Masters. However, he has shown a decline in form in recent tournaments, finishing 50th in the US PGA Championship and 16th in the Memorial Tournament. His recent performance raises some concerns about his chances in the US Open.

Brooks Koepka: Koepka has a strong track record in recent US Opens, with form figures of 1-1-2-4-55. Despite a 55th place finish last year, his overall form has been impressive, including a recent victory in the US PGA Championship. Koepka is considered a strong contender for his third US Open title.

Rory McIlroy: McIlroy has a solid history in the US Open, finishing inside the top-ten in the last four editions. Although it has been a while since his last major win, his recent performance in the Canadian Open suggests positive momentum. His form at Riviera has been mixed, but he has contended in the past at the Genesis Invitational.

Patrick Cantlay: Cantlay is considered one of the best golfers yet to win a major. With his familiarity with the course being from Los Angeles, he could have a home advantage. Although he has only recorded four top-ten finishes in majors, including a T-9 at the PGA Championship, this US Open presents a good opportunity for him to secure his first major victory.

Xander Schauffele: Schauffele has been consistent in recent US Opens, finishing in the top seven in five out of six starts. Last year, he finished T-14. He is known for his strong performance with mid- to long-iron shots and ranks well in strokes gained putting this season. His solid season so far, with a 24th place finish in the Memorial, 18th place in the PGA Championship, and a second-place finish at the Wells Fargo Championship, indicates that he is in good form and could be on the verge of his first major success.