Where will all the eyes be?
This year, there is a clear anticipation for the final match-up, centering around Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz. With the absence of Roger Federer and Rafa Nadal from the scene, a fresh rivalry has blossomed between these two players, resulting in a series of remarkable matches.
Novak Djokovic was looking unstoppable with easy wins and dominant tennis but he needed to come from 2 sets down to win in 5 against Djere, Carlos Alcaraz on the other hand has had an easy time so far but now will face Dan Evans who has showed some serious form in the US. Seeds have started to fall with Khachanov, Ruud, Rune, Tsitsipas and Musetti all out of the tournament already.
US Open odds
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US Open Day 5 Best Bets and Tennis Predictions
Here are our US Open Day 5 Tennis Predictions:
Jack Draper had experienced two narrow defeats against Hubert Hurkacz in Antwerp last year and at the Monte Carlo Masters earlier this year. However, he successfully reversed the trend in their recent encounter at the US Open. Unlike their previous matches, it was Hurkacz who was not in peak physical condition this time, and this significantly influenced the final outcome.
The talented Brit has lost many matches due to fitness issues and retirements in his young career, but for once, luck has been on his side in the second round at the US Open this week. In fact, both of his most recent losses on the main tour (against Tallon Griekspoor in Winston Salem last week) and at the US Open (against Karen Khachanov in the third round last year) resulted from his retirement during the contest.
While Draper had to skip several tournaments this year due to injuries, he consistently demonstrated a high level of play whenever he had the chance to compete. He secured victories against players such as Tommy Paul, Karen Khachanov, and Andy Murray. Additionally, he managed to win sets against Rafael Nadal at the Australian Open and Francisco Cerundolo in Lyon.
Michael Mmoh brought an end to his compatriot John Isner’s playing career with a remarkable five-set comeback victory in the second round of the US Open. The emotional backdrop of Isner’s retirement added complexity to the contest, and Mmoh compounded the challenge by falling two sets behind. Nevertheless, he mounted a comeback, even saving a match point in the deciding set, ultimately sealing the victory in the super tiebreaker.
Similar to his opponent Jack Draper, the American has also been sidelined for a significant portion of the year due to fitness issues. However, every time he has stepped onto the court, his performance has been praiseworthy. He has secured victories against formidable opponents such as Alexander Zverev, Felix Auger Aliassime, Denis Shapovalov, Hubert Hurkacz, and Karen Khachanov, which led to his achieving a career-high ranking of #82.
Before 2023, he had never advanced to the third round of a Grand Slam. However, this year marks his second appearance in the third round of a major tournament. He reached the third round as a lucky loser at the Australian Open in January, but unfortunately, he couldn’t mount a significant challenge against his compatriot Jeffrey John Wolf.
Head-to-head: Jack Draper leads 1-0 (three-setter at Forli Challenger 2022). Draper is the superior talent and will start as the favorite, but it’s crucial for him to aim for a quick finish in the match. The longer the contest drags on and the more physically demanding it becomes, the greater the risk that he may tire out and face physical breakdown.
Prediction: Mmoh v Draper Over 37.5 Games @ 1.85 (US Open Day 6)
Cameron Norrie had been struggling with form and momentum in the lead-up to the US Open, enduring a four-match losing streak. His performance hasn’t seen a significant improvement in this campaign. However, he benefited from being placed in a favorable section of the draw, which allowed him to advance to the third round quickly. In his second-round match against the inexperienced Yu Hsiou Hsu, he faced a staggering 18 breakpoint opportunities but managed to emerge from the contest without dropping a set.
Last year, the British number one also advanced to this stage of the US Open without losing a set, securing yet another straight-set victory in the third round. He displayed dominance over Holger Rune, winning with a scoreline of 7-5, 6-4, 6-1. Notably, this marked his first-ever success in the third round of this tournament.
The world #16 had a breakthrough performance in Grand Slams last year, making it to the Wimbledon semifinals and reaching the round of 16 at the US Open. However, this year has been a letdown for him at this level. His best results were limited to reaching the third round twice, once at the Australian Open and once at the French Open, where he was defeated by Jiri Lehecka and Lorenzo Musetti (ITA), respectively.
A standout quality that has fueled Matteo Arnaldi’s rapid ascent across all levels in the past 24 months has been his unwavering determination and never-give-up attitude. It was precisely this attribute that secured him a significant victory in the second round of a Grand Slam against the reigning ATP Lyon champion, Arthur Fils. In a closely fought battle that extended to five sets, Arnaldi began as the underdog and quickly lost the first set before staging a remarkable comeback.
This marks the first season in which the Italian has competed in such a high number of matches at the top level, and it’s understandable that he’s feeling a bit fatigued in recent months. His performance hasn’t reached its peak level for quite some time, and in his most recent appearance at the Cincinnati Masters, he was bageled by Corentin Moutet in the qualifying round.
Prior to 2023, he had never encountered a top-20 player, but he has performed quite credibly in nearly all five of such matches he has participated in over the past eight months. He caused an upset by defeating Casper Ruud at the Madrid Masters, managed to claim a set against Lorenzo Musetti in Bastad, and put up a strong fight against Daniil Medvedev at the Toronto Masters.
Head-to-head: 0-0. Cameron Norrie is currently displaying a rather ordinary level of play, making him vulnerable to defeat. However, Matteo Arnaldi doesn’t seem to be in a fresh enough condition to capitalize on his opponent’s current struggles.
Prediction: Norrie 3-0 Arnaldi @ 2.5 @ 1.85 (US Open Day 6)
One significant hindrance for Jannik Sinner has been his persistent fitness issues in recent years. To overcome this problem and maximize his chances in lengthy tournaments like Grand Slams, it is crucial for him to conserve energy during the early rounds. This is precisely what he has achieved so far at the US Open, as he dominated a couple of challenging opponents in Yannick Hanfmann and Lorenzo Sonego, not dropping more than four games in any of the six sets played.
The Italian number one is currently riding a wave of confidence and momentum, and this dominant start to the campaign in New York is likely to have further bolstered his belief in achieving a significant result at the US Open. After four unsuccessful attempts, Sinner finally broke through the quarterfinal barrier in Grand Slams at Wimbledon a couple of months ago. In the subsequent tournament, he secured the biggest title of his career at the Toronto Masters.
He has been a consistent performer in Grand Slams over the past two seasons, reaching the second week in seven of the last eight major tournaments he has participated in. He accomplished this in the last two editions of the US Open and even served for the match in the fourth set against the eventual champion Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals 12 months ago.
Given the fitness problems he has faced in recent times, Stan Wawrinka appeared to be in trouble after losing the tightly contested second set against Tomas Martin Etcheverry. He seemed at risk of being outlasted by his opponent. However, he surprisingly found new reserves of energy and went on to dominate the rest of the contest, conceding only five games in total in the third and fourth sets.
The former world number 3 has achieved varying results in the three completed Grand Slam tournaments this year. After being outlasted in the first round at the Australian Open and the second round at the French Open, he lost to a top-10 opponent, Novak Djokovic, in the third round at Wimbledon, where he defeated Tomas Martin Etcheverry in four sets in the second round.
He secured his third Grand Slam title at the US Open in 2016 and boasts an impressive win/loss record of 8/6 against top-10 players at this venue, including a couple of significant victories over Novak Djokovic.
Head-to-head: Jannik Sinner leads 3-2 (2-0 in 2023). A showdown between a peak Stan Wawrinka and the current version of Sinner would undoubtedly provide a fascinating battle. However, with the Swiss not being in peak physical condition, it provides a significant advantage to the Italian once again.
Prediction: Sinner 3-0 v Wawrinka @ 2.0 (US Open Day 6)
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