Premier League Final Day: What can happen on the final day?

The Premier League is preparing for the final day as three teams facing the drop hold their breath and and three teams battle it out for the final European spot.


Premier League Final Day Permutations

As the Premier League season draws to a close, the final day presents a mix of emotions for clubs and fans alike. While the champions and Champions League qualifiers have been determined, there are still thrilling battles to be fought. In this article, we explore the relegation tussle and the race for Europa Conference qualification, highlighting the results which will shape the final outcomes.

Relegation: Survival or Demise?

The most significant storyline on the final day revolves around the relegation battle. Alongside Southampton, two of Everton, Leicester, and Leeds face the daunting prospect of Championship football next season. Each team’s fate rests on their performance in the last round of fixtures.

Everton, with a two-point advantage over their rivals, are the favorites to secure survival. However, if they lose on the final day, they will break the record for the “worst” team to avoid relegation in Premier League history, surpassing West Brom’s Great Escapists from the 2004/05 season. Everton’s goal difference is better than the record-holders, adding another layer of intrigue.

 


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Relegation Permutations

  • Everton Win: Everton secures safety, and both Leicester and Leeds suffer relegation.
  • Everton Lose: If either Leicester or Leeds win, the other team, along with Everton, faces the drop. However, if both Leicester and Leeds win, Everton and Leeds will be relegated unless Leeds can produce an exceptional victory margin over Leicester.
  • Everton Draw: The scenario becomes more complex. If neither Leicester nor Leeds win, Everton survives. However, if both Leicester and Leeds win, Leicester will survive based on goal difference. If Everton draws, Leeds wins, and Leicester loses, Leicester will be relegated, and Leeds must win by three goals to secure survival and relegate Everton on goals scored.

To summarise:

  • Everton’s Path to Safety: Win or hope that neither Leicester nor Leeds win.
  • Leicester’s Hopes: Win and hope that Everton does not win.
  • Leeds’ Chances: Win, hope that Leicester loses, and Everton either loses or draws. Alternatively, win by a three-goal margin, hope that Leicester loses, and Everton draws.

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Europa Conference Qualification: The Battle for Seventh

While the Conference League spot may not be the grandest prize, it still offers an opportunity for European competition. With Manchester City crowned champions and the Champions League places secured by Arsenal, Newcastle, and Manchester United, the focus turns to seventh spot.

Tottenham’s recent slump has opened the door for other contenders, with Aston Villa leading the pack. Currently, Villa holds a one-point advantage over Spurs, followed closely by Brentford. The final fixtures for these teams will decide who claims the Conference League spot.

Let’s analyse the possibilities:

  • Villa Win: A victory ensures seventh place for Aston Villa, and no other team can challenge them.
  • Villa Lose: If Spurs defeat Leeds or draw and Brentford fail to win, Spurs will secure seventh place. However, if Spurs lose and Brentford do not win, Aston Villa will still finish in seventh.
  • Villa Draw: Should Spurs defeat Leeds, they will finish seventh. If Brentford wins and Spurs do not, Brentford will secure seventh place. If neither Spurs nor Brentford win, Aston Villa will still finish seventh.

This season marks Brentford’s highest top-flight finish since 1938, while Spurs aim to avoid their lowest finish since 2008. For Aston Villa, a seventh or eighth-place finish would be their highest Premier League position since 2010.


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