Grand National Aintree Day 3 Saturday Preview

The final day of the Aintree Grand National Festival meeting on Saturday where it is all about the big one the Aintree Grand National.

Aintree Grand National day race by race guide

1:45 Aintree 2m (1m7f176y) (Mildmay) EFT Systems Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) Grand National day

Key trends

• 19 of the last 19 Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
• 19 of the last 19 Winners from the first 3 in the market
• 19 of the last 19 Priced 5/1 or shorter in the market
• 16 of the last 19 Ran within the last 35 days
• Paull Nicholls, Nicky Henderson and Henry De Bromhead have won 11 of the last 19 between them

Key runners

This looks a pretty straight forward opportunity for Jonbon to take the opening race on Grand National day. The Nicky Henderson runner was successful here at Aintree last season after finishing second at the festival and the same result is expected this season. He seemed a bit below his best in the Arkle behind El Fabiolo but this flatter course probably is more to his liking and he won’t be facing anything of that level here. With Thursday winner Banbridge unlikely to be taking his chance the obvious danger is Notlongtillmay but I`m not convinced the Turners form is the strongest this year and I would prefer the chances of Marve De Cerisy for the Henry De Bromhead and Rachael Blackmore partnership to fill the places.

Selection Jonbon

Past winners

2:25 Aintree 3m½f (3m149y) Village Hotels Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) Grand National day

Key trends

• 10 of the last 11 winners were aged between 6 and 8
• 10 of the last 11 winners had at least 5 runs over hurdles,
• 9 of the last 11 winners were rated 137 or higher
• 9 of the last 11 winners had at least 3 runs that season,
• 8 of the last 11 winners carried between 10st 9lbs & 11st 6lbs
• 9 of the last 11 winners ran within the last 42 days
• 6 of the last 11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
• 4 of the last 11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree,
• 3 of the last 11 winners ran in the Coral Cup (Cheltenham) on their last run,

Key runners

Competitive stuff as you would expect and claims can be made for plenty. Good Time Jonny has to be respected for the Tony Martin yard after winning with plenty to spare it seemed at Cheltenham. West Balboa is another who comes from a specialist yard with in these handicaps and last year’s winner Party Business would also be in the mix if retuning to form. It’s the Paul Nicholls trained Outlaw Peter though who would be my pick from those towards the head of the market. He looks to be improving with every run and was a comfortable winner at Kempton when last seen. Kept fresh for Aintree and with the potential of plenty more to come over this trip he looks to hold strong claims. In what could be a good Grand National day for Gordon Elliot his  Au Fleuron looks a interesting runner, he ran on late in the Martin Pipe through beaten horses suggesting this step up in trip was needed. Connections add blinkers which might also sharpen him up and the better ground here at Aintree is in his favour.

Selection Outlaw Peter – Au Fleuron

Past winners

3:00 Aintree 2m4f Turners Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (Gbb Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Key trends

• 18 of the last 19 Won by a horse aged 5 above
• 16 of the last 19 Raced 39 days or less before coming to Aintree
• 15 of the last 19 Placed in the top three last time out
• 14 of the last 19 Priced 9/2 or shorter in the market
• 12 of the last 19 Ran at Cheltenham prior to Aintree
• Willie Mullins, Tizzard, Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson have won 10 of the last 18

Key runners

A race in which I think you can pick holes in the front of the market for one reason or another. Hermes Allen has had a couple of tough races this season now and to me will be a better horse next season now. You Wear It Well won the Mares novices in determined fashion but that might not be the strongest of form. Dark Raven has to prove himself over this trip and Irish point has to prove himself at this level again on a decent surface. Springwell Bay also has to prove himself at this level but there is enough juice in his price currently to take that risk and there has been a lot to like about the way he has gone about things on his last couple of starts. He rates a good prospect and should enjoy the demands of Aintree.

Cool Survivor was extremely well fancied when disappointing in the Martin Pipe and I can’t help thinking he is much better than that showing. It`s interesting connections put him back into graded company rather sticking down the handicap route and it might just be that he needs genuine good ground to be at his best.

Selection Springwell Bay – Cool Survivor

Past winners

3:35 Aintree 3m½f (3m149y) Jrl Group Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) (Gbb Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Key trends

• 15 of the last 18  Priced 11/2 or shorter
• 15 of the last 18 Aged between 6-8 years-old
• 15 of the last 18 – Ran within the last 30 days prior to Aintree
• 12 of last 18 – Won or finished 2nd at this Aintree Grand National Festival meeting last year
• Nicholls or Henderson 6 winners in the last 18

Key runners

No surprise to see the Stayers hurdle form well represented with this year’s winner Sire Du Berlais looking to confirm the form with Flooring Porter, Dashel Drasher and Home By The Lee. It`s anyone’s guess really who will come out on top this time around and I`m happy to look elsewhere for the winner. The bubble somewhat burst a little with Maries Rock in the Mares hurdle at the festival, she tries 3 mile now for the first time and it will be interesting how this keen traveling mare copes with the step up in distance even given that Aintree is a much sharper test. Champ is the only horse prominent in the betting who did not feature at Cheltenham with the now 11-year-old arriving here after not being seen since finishing third at Kempton over Christmas. He finished third in this last year and given his record over the years of when returning from a break he has to be taken seriously.

Selection Champ

Past winners

4:15 Aintree 3m1f (3m210y) (Mildmay) William Hill Handicap Chase (Registered As The Freebooter Handicap Chase) (Premier Handicap) (Gbb Ra (Class 1) (5yo+)

Key trends

• 16 of the last 19 had run within the last 35 days
• 14 of the last 19  Carried 11-1 or less in weight
• 14 of the last 19 Won by a horse aged 8 or older

Key runners

Beauport ran better than the finishing position suggesting in the Kim Muir and this easier test should be more to his liking. He might want softer ground but I`m pretty sure he has a decent prize in him off around his current mark. Another to consider is the Ben Pauling trained Shakem Up`arry who ran a really good race to finish third in the Plate. He ticks a lot of the trends bokes for previous winners of this and the easier Aintree course along with the quicker surface could just bring out a bit more.

Selection Beauport – Shakem Up`arry

Past winners

5:15 Aintree 4m2½f (4m2f74y) (Grand National) Randox Grand National Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (7yo+)

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Grand National Key trends

• 30 of the last 31 Officially rated 137 or higher
• 29  of the last 31 Ran no more than 55 days ago prior to the Aintree Grand National
• 27 of the last 31 Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
• 27 of the last 31Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
• 24 of the last 31 Carried 10-13 or less
• 24 of the last 31 Aged 9 or older
• 12 of the last 31 Trained in Ireland (inc 9 of the last 16 years)
• 11 of the last 11 had at least 3 previous runs that season
• 10 of the last 11 winners had at least 10 previous chase runs,
• 9 of the last 11 winners were priced 11/1 or bigger
• 9 of the last 11 winners carried between 10st 3lbs and 11st 5lbs
• 9 of the last 11 winners had at least 7 runs over hurdles
• 8 of the last 11 winners had their last run within the last 35 days
• 8 of the last 11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree
• 8 of the last 11 had at least 1 previous win that season
• 7 of the last 11 winners were aged between 8 and 10
• 6 of the last 11 winners had at least 1 previous win in grade 1-3 races

Grand National Key runners

Last year’s Grand National winner Noble Yeats is the obvious place to start, he managed to defy in experience and become the first 7-year-old to win the Grand National since 1940 so there is a argument that he could be even better this time around. The Gold Cup fourth is going to have to be though off a 19lb higher mark. He looks sure to run his race and is genuine candidate to become a dual Grand National winner but could just find something on better terms. Corach Rambler highlighted his claims for the Aintree spectacle with his second successive victory in the Ultima at Cheltenham. I just get the impression now though that he has hit his level and his hold up style is not going to be one for the faint hearted. Last years Grand National third Delta Work won the Cross Country Chase for the second year running at Cheltenham last month. His run last year can be expected to be improved upon he made a mistake early in last years race and also meets his main rivals on much better terms this year with the placed Any Second Now also taking another 8lb rise in the weights. I also get the impression that connections set the Grand National as more of the long term plan this year and the vibes are that he has been trained much more with this race in mind.

Gordon Elliot and Gigenstown also run Coko Beach, he could only manage an eight placed finish last year but there is good reasoning to suggest he can improve upon that finish this year. He was only a 7-year-old last year and having his first try over the National fences and despite jumping and travelling well he was always doing a bit too much to soon. If we get the forecast quicker ground then that will suit, he looked to stay better than he had previously at Punchestown last time and Harry Cobden I think is the type of jockey who will suit.

The other I`m interested in at bigger prices is the Joe Tizzard trained The Big Breakaway, his jumping can be at bit suspect at times however the National Fences are not the same test as years gone by and he put in a good round of jumping when second in the Welsh National 2 starts back proving himself over these marathon trips. Last time at Cheltenham can be ignored as it was purely preparation for this and the blinkers going on looks a good move.

Selection Delta Work – The Big Breakaway – Coko Beach

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Past winners

6:20 Aintree 2m1f (2m209y) Weatherbys Nhstallions.Co.UK Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2) (Gbb Race) (Class 1)

Key trends

• 11 of the last 11 winners had at least 1 NHF win before running at Aintre
• 10 of the last 11 winners were aged 5 or 6
• 10 of the last 11 winners had at least 2 NHF runs
• 8 of the last 11 winners ran within the last 62 days
• 1 of the last 11 winners were favourite

Key runners

There was plenty to like about the performance of Pour Les Filles when successful on debut at Leopardstown. The Gordon Elliot runner showed sign of inexperience but made a considerable amount of ground to get up on the line that day. I expect there is plenty more to come of the market principles he is the one I prefer. Beat The Bat improved on his debut to win at Chepstow on his second start, The Harry Fry runner is another work in progress but won that day under hands and heels in the end with the front 2 pulling well clear. He should be suited to the long straight at Aintree. The unbeaten Aslukgoes has to also be respected, he improved again to win at Newbury last time and appreciates quick ground.

Selection Pour Les Filles – Beat The Bat

Past winners

General Aintree Grand National Stats

Much is said about the horses who ran last time at Cheltenham then running to form at Aintree. Below see`s the breakdown of course last ran at for both handicaps and non-handicaps at the Aintree Grand National meeting. Note the strong performance of Cheltenham runners in graded races compared to handicaps. Also worth noting is the performance collectively of runners in handicaps who ran at a similar course profile to that of Aintree last time out.

Last ran course Aintree handicaps 2 or more winners

Last ran course Aintree non handicaps 2 or more winners

Aintree Top Trainers non handicaps 5 wins

Aintree Top trainers handicaps 2 or more wins