Day 1 of the Aintree Grand National Festival meeting and our top tipster has his best bets, tips and stats for all the big races including the Aintree Bowl and the Aintree Hurdle.

Aintree race by race guide

1.45 Aintree – 2m4f (2m3f200y) (Mildmay) Racehorse Lotto Manifesto Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Key trends

• 10 of the last 11 were aged 6-8
• 9 of the last 11 were in the top 3 in the betting
• 8 of the last 11 ran within the last 30 days
• 0 of the last 11 won on their last run
• 8 of the last 11 ran at Cheltenham Festival
• 8 of the last 11 winners previous run at Aintree

Key runners

A small but select field. With the Arkle, Golden Miller form lines set to class it looks a fascinating renewal to solve.

Banbridge by passed Cheltenham down to the soft ground and with rain forecast once again that has to be the concern for the Joseph O`Brien runner. He won the Martin Pipe in 22 and has since progressed to a graded horse over the larger obstacles including a second-place finish behind El Fabiolo in the Irish Arkle, he fresh and has a big form chance but the ground is the concern. For that reason, preference is for the Paul Nicholls trained Stage Star. This bold jumping front running type has gone from strength over the larger obstacles this season including success in the Golden Miller last time. That form ties in strongly with the best of the Irish runners this season given the horses he had in behind that day and a reproduction of that run makes him the one to beat. Saint Roi finished third in the Arkle but was ridden very much to pick up the pieces and I think the Willie Mullins just falls short once again at the top level here at Aintree.

Selection Stage Star

Previous winners

2.20 Aintree – 2m1f (2m209y) Jewson Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo)

Key trends

• 16 of the last 19 Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
• 15 of the last 19 Top three last time out
• 13 of the last 19 Raced in the Triumph Hurdle
• 12 of the last 19 Returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting (8 winning favourites)
• Alan King, Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson strong records
• 12/17 winners were placed at worst at the Cheltenham Festival
• Horses rated 152+ are 8 from 8 (since 2007)
• 3 of the last 21 winners were Irish-trained
• French-bred horses have won including 5 of the last 7

Key runners

Gary Moore runs 2 here with Bo Zenith looking the first string, he swerved Cheltenham in favour of Aintree in that the hope that this type of track will be more to his liking. His form in France was strong and he has a more unexposed feel to him than some here. Zenta looks a worthy favourite based on her third placed finish in the Triumph Hurdle. That was just her second start for the Willie Mullins team and is clearly the best from on offer here. Conditions should be perfect and she sets the standard they all have to beat. Scriptwriter was disappointing in the Adonis in which Nurset was victorious and even if bouncing back to his best still might fall short. While the Joseph O Brien runner might just be better suited to a faster surface than we can expect at Aintree today.

Selection Zenta

Previous winners

2.55 Aintree 3m1f (3m210y) (Mildmay) Alder Hey Aintree Bowl Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Key trends

• 17 of the last 19 Didn’t win last time out
  14 of the last 19 Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
  11 of the last 19 Ran in the Gold Cup (Cheltenham) last time out
  11 of the last 19 Placed in the top 4 last time out
  Paul Nicholls, Willie Mullins and Pipe stable strong records

Key runners

A fascinating renewal with many potential storylines. Shishkin would most likely be the best of those, the Nicky Henderson runner bounced back to somewhere near his best when winning the Ascot Chase 2 starts back, things didn’t go to plan at Cheltenham and the jumping errors are a concern as much as I think the step up in trip is needed now and Aintree is the ideal place to try. Conflated was second in this last year and comes here on the back of a solid third in the Gold Cup he should be thereabouts once more arguably under conditions that are more to his liking. A Plus Tard was going okay in the Gold Cup when badly hampered, the vibes seem more positive but I`d rather see a return to form first. Ahoy Senor fell at Cheltenham when still travelling well, he was a winner here last season in the Mildmay Novices and has to be respected based on that and his success in the Costwold Chase, he received weight that day though and at this top level he might just fall short. With all that said the Paul Nicholls Bravemansgame just looks the one with the least questions to answer currently. He arrives here in the best form of his career thanks to a winning the Charlie Hall, King George and a second-place finish in the Gold Cup. Soft ground round this slightly sharper test is fine and providing things don’t become to testing he is expected to give trainer Paul Nicholls his third successive win in the race.

Selection Bravemansgame (NR) Update Conflated

Past winners

3.30 Aintree 2m4f William Hill Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Key trends

• 18 of the last 19, 8 or younger
  15 of the last 19  6/1 or shorter in the betting
  15 of the last 19 Ran at the Cheltenham Festival
  12 of the last 19 Placed in the top 4 last time out
  Irish-trained winners or Nicky Henderson trained

Key runners

This looks a straight forward opportunity for the impressive Champion Hurdle winner Constitution Hill. Providing we don`t see any unlikely mishap there really should only be one result. Of the others Epatante receives the mares’ allowance and was a comfortable winner of this last year. She needs to bounce back from a below run last time but didn`t have a hard race in the end and is still a classy mare in here own right.

Selection Constitution Hill – Epatante Straight forecast

Past winners

4.05 Aintree 2m5f (2m5f19y) (Grand National) Randox Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase (Class 2) (6yo+)

Key trends

• Last 19 all Aged 9 or older
  14 of the last 19 Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
  14 of the last 19 Placed in the top 3 last time out
  9 of the last 19 Won last time out
  7 of the last 19 Ran in the Cheltenham Foxhunters’ last time out
  Ireland based runners have won 4 of the last 8

Key runners

This looks a good opportunity for Winged Leader. A sure-footed jumper who has an complicated racing style he should he looks the ideal type for this test. He has a touch of class to him as we know by finishing second in last years Foxhunters at Cheltenham and has been in great form again this campaign with this always likely to have been the long-term target. Conditions look ideal he won’t mind any further rain and is the one to beat. Last years winner Latenightpass should be thereabouts once again but at much bigger prices it`s the 2021 winner Cousin Pascal who makes some each way appeal if the rain arrives. Another at big prices who would also appreciate a demanding test is Dieu Vivant who has the cheekpieces back on and could be staying on late for place money.

Selection Winged Leader

Past winners

4.40 Aintree 2m (1m7f176y) (Mildmay) Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)

• 17 of the last 19 Aged 9 or younger
  17 of the last 19 Carried 11-1 or less
  13 of the last 19 Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
  12 of the last 19 Unplaced last time out
  9 of the last 19 Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out

Key runners

Thirdtimelucki has to be respected on the bases of his finishing effort in the Grand Annual when coming from well off the pace but he has a lot of weight in a race that normally favours those towards the bottom end of the weights. Last season’s winner The Last Day has not been in the same form this time around and a s result races from a 2lb lower mark. He`s a dual course and distance winner though and this will have always been the target, if bouncing back to form he is likely to take some beating once again. Another I`m keen to have on my side is Hasankey, he does not look the most well handicapped horses at first glance but he managed to finish sixth in last year’s Grand Annual and has held his form well enough this year. This type of test could just be more to his liking than the small field events recently and he looks a fair price. Defan has not taken much racing recently but he has one more than one occasion gave the impression he could be better than a 130 horse and its interesting connections make the trip over.

Selections The Last Day – Hasankey

Past winners

5.15 Aintree 2m1f (2m209y) Goffs UK Nickel Coin Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2) (GBB Race) (Class 1)

Key trends

• 10 of the last 11 were aged 5 or 6
• 5 of the last 11 top 3 in the betting
• 8 of the last 11 ran within the last 34 days
• 9 of the last 11 were rated 105 or higher
• 0 of the last 11 had at least 1 previous win in a graded race
• 9 of the last 11 had at least 1 win that season

Key runners

A fair bit of guess work here. The Paul Nicholls Seeyouinmydreams was impressive on debut and has to be respected but this is likely to be very different test and she will need to settle better. Given that this could become somewhat of a test for these inexperienced types I like the chances of Gaillimh A Run, she has taken some time to come to hand and has had the 4 starts in bumpers but there was a lot to like about how she travelled and stuck to the task at Naas last time. Jamie Codd is in the saddle and should go well. At bigger prices Williamstowndancer could be one who runs well, she has not been seen since disappointing at Navan in November but the break could have done her good and it`s interesting connections bring her over for this. While the 4-year-old Jolie Coeur Allen in another intriguing runner for the Willie Mullins team.

Selection Gaillimh A Run – Williamstowndancer

Past winners

General Aintree Stats

Much is said about the horses who ran last time at Cheltenham then running to form at Aintree. Below see`s the breakdown of course last ran at for both handicaps and non-handicaps at the Aintree Grand National meeting. Note the strong performance of Cheltenham runners in graded races compared to handicaps. Also worth noting is the performance collectively of runners in handicaps who ran at a similar course profile to that of Aintree last time out.

Last ran course Aintree handicaps 2 or more winners

Last ran course Aintree non handicaps 2 or more winners

Aintree Top Trainers non handicaps 5 wins

Aintree Top trainers handicaps 2 or more wins