Grand National Festival Aintree Day 2 Friday Preview

The second day of the Aintree Grand National Festival meeting on Friday. With the feature races at Aintree being the Melling Chase and the Topham Chase over the National fences.

Aintree race by race guide

1:45 Aintree 3m1f (3m210y) (Mildmay) Air Charter Service Mildmay Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Key trends

• 19 of the last 19 7/1 or shorter SP
• 19 of the last 19 Ran in the last 55 days
• 16 of the last 19 Aged 7 or below
• 16 of the last 19 Top 4 last time out
• 15 of the last 19 Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out, last 9 winners finished 1st or 2nd
• Trainer Nicky Henderson, Tizzard and Paul Nicholls have won 11 of the last 19 between them 2 winners for Ireland in that period.

Key runners

The Gordon Elliot trained Gerri Colombe only just failed when losing his unbeaten record in the Brown Advisory at the Cheltenham Festival. He is the most likely winner here that is for certain however I have slight doubt that Aintree might get him on the back foot a little and given the short price I`m happy it`s a worry. Bronn was over 4 lengths behind Gerri Colombe that day but the sharper track here at Aintree will suit the Mullins runner and it would not surprise me if he reversed the form. With all that said though it`s the fifth placed horse from Cheltenham I`m most interested in. Any further rain will help Galia Des Liteaux chances but I think what is more crucial on this occasion is the flatter course of Aintree. She was impressive in a grade 2 at Warwick a couple of starts back which confirms this opinion and with the handy mares’ allowance once again I`m hopeful that we see a better performance here at Aintree from the Dan Skelton mare.

Selection Galia Des Liteaux

Past winners

2:20 Aintree 2m4f William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Key trends

• 10 of the last 11 winners had at least 5 runs over hurdles,
• 10 of the last 11 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
• 9 of the last 11 winners were rated 130 or higher
• 9 of the last 11 winners aged between 5 and 8
• 8 of the last 11 winners ran within the last 44 days
• 5 of the last 11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree,
• 3 of the last 11 winners ran in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle before coming to Aintree
• 2 of the last 11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting

Key runners

Cheltenham handicap form well represented here in the extremely competitive handicap. The likes of Camprond, Captain Conby and Good Risk At All have claims based on there runs in the Coral Cup but it’s the Nicky Richards trained Nells Son who I like at fancy odds. He travelled well into the race that day before weakening late on. I think Aintree will be more to his liking and he ran a good race here at last years meeting as a novice. No Ordinary Joe and Buddy One are closer matched based on there second and third placed finishes in the Martin Pipe, I do expect the Nicky Henderson runner to confirm that from here. That was his first try at 2 ½ mile and he just weakened out of things late up the hill, again this sharper track at Aintree should be more to his liking and he should be thereabouts. Harry Derham has started his training career in scintillating form this season and his Dargiannini is another who maybe is worth having on your side.

Selection No Ordinary Joe – Nells Son

Past winners

2:55 Aintree 2m½f (2m103y) Poundland Top Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Key trends

• 11 of the last 11 winners had at least 4 previous runs over around 2 mile
• 11 of the last 11 winners had at least 2 runs that season
• 10 of the last 11 winners were aged 5 or 6
• 10 of the last 11 winners had their last run within the last 31 days
• 7 of the last 11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
• 8 of the last 11 winners won or placed on their last run before running at Aintree
• 7 of the last 11 winners ran in the Supreme Novices Hurdle (Cheltenham) on their last run, 0 of the 7 won, 5 placed
• 6 of the last 12 Trained by Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins 0 from 5

Key runners

Inthepocket sets the standard here based on his fourth placed finish in the Supreme at Cheltenham and I`m surprised a little on the current price available when writing this. Yes, the Henry De Bromhead runner might want further in time but he didn’t look short of pace at the same time at Cheltenham and the long straight here at Aintree should give Rachel Blackmore plenty of time to deliver her charge. One of the also rans at Cheltenham like Rare Edition or Tahmuras could bounce back to earlier form but I`d rather see them do it at this higher level first. Luccia was someone of a talking horse going into the mares’ novices at Cheltenham before disappointing slightly and has question marks to answer for me now.

Selection Inthepocket

Past winners

3:30 Aintree 2m4f (2m3f200y) (Mildmay) Marsh Chase (Registered As The Melling Chase) (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Key trends

• 18 of the last 19 Raced within the last 30 days
• 18 of the last 19 Ran in the Ryanair or Champion Chase that season before coming to Aintree
• 16 of the last 19 Priced 8/1 or shorter SP
• 16 of the last 19 Aged 9 or younger
• 11 of the last 24 winners trained in Ireland

Key runners

The Joseph O`Brien trained Fakir D`ourdaries simply loves Aintree and looks a worthy favourite to complete a hattrick of success in this race. He was a bit below his best when last seen at Ascot but he has been freshened up since and no doubt this will have always been the long-term target. Cheek pieces go on for the first time which again can always help sharpen these experienced chasers up

Pic d’Orhy’s seems to have taken his form to a new level over the larger obstacles and is preferred over the stables other runner Hitman who just has the tendency to always find one to good at the highest level including in this last year.

Selection Fakir D`Oudairies

Past winners

4:05 Aintree 2m5f (2m5f19y) (Grand National) Randox Supports Race Against Dementia Topham Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Key trends

• 18 of the last 19 Raced within the last 34 days
• 17 of the last 19 Aged 10 or younger
• 17 of the last 19 Didn’t win last time out
• 11 of the last 11 winners were rated 132 or higher
• 11 of the last 11 winners had at least 1 previous chase win
• 10 of the last 11 winners ran within the last 33 days
• 10 of the last 11 had at least 1 previous win over around 2m 4f
• 10 of the last 11 winners had at least 4 runs that season
• 9 of the last 11 winners had at least 13 previous chase runs and 2 chase victories
• 8 of the last 11 winners were aged between 8 and 11
• 7 of the last 11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree
• 0 of the last 11 winners were favourites
• Peter Bowen and Nicky Henderson have 9 of the last 19 winners between them

Key runners

Henry De Bromhead runs a couple here and his Upping The Anti looks of interest. He was second in a grade 3 last time at Thurles and he could have more to offer back in a handicap. He seems a solid uncomplicated type which you need for this type of race and looks a fair price under ideal conditions.

Equus Dancer would be some what of a trends buster however his stable know how to target one for this race and the win over hurdles last time is a interesting one as it gives the impression they were trying to protect the chase mark for this. He is unexposed, has more to offer over the larger obstacles and a big run would not surprise.

Selections  Equus Dancer – Upping The Ante

Past winners

4:40 Aintree 3m½f (3m149y) Winners Wear Cavani Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+)

Key trends

• 17 of the last 19 had ran in the last 35 days
• 10 of the last 11 winners were aged either 6 or 7
• 10 of the last 11 winners had at least 3 runs that season
• 9 of the last 11 winners had at least 2 wins that season
• 7 of the last 11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
• 4 of the 11 winners ran in the Spa Novices Hurdle (Cheltenham) on their last run before Aintree
• 1 of the last 11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Aintree,
• Nicky Henderson has won 3 of the last 8.

Key runners

An interesting renewal with the Paul Nicholls trained Stay Away Far likely to head the market after his success in the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham, he’s respected but he had a tough race for a novice and he will need to be at his best once again. Another festival winner in the line up is Iroko but he is stepping up from handicap company and will need to prove himself at this higher level. The Nicky Richards trained Maxmillian actually beat Stay Away Far when last seen and has purposely been kept fresh for Aintree. He looked the worthy winner that day and really appreciated the extra distance, he has had his wind done, which ahs bought about more improvement and looks a fair price. Gordon Elliot runs Absolute Notions who would be the likely danger for me his form when second to Good Land though has taken a bit of knock at hie has to fully prove himself over this trip. The Dan Skelton Grey Dawning could have more to offer and at even bigger prices Saint Davy looked a nice type and represents fair each way value.

Selection Maximilian

Past winners

5:15 Aintree 2m½f (2m103y) Abersoch Land And Sea Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys’ And Amateur Riders’ Race) (GBB Race) (Class 2) (4yo+)

Key trends

• 11 of the last 11 winners had at least 4 previous runs over hurdles
• 10 of the last 11 winners were rated 130 or higher
• 10 of the last 11 winners had at least 3 runs that season before Aintree
• 10 of the last 11 winners ran within the last 36 days before coming to Aintree
• 9 of the last 11 had at least 2 previous wins over around 2 miles
• 8 of the last 11 winners were aged between 5 and 7
• 1 of the last 11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting

Key runners

Blueking Doroux should go well for the Paul Nicholls team if able to reproduce the from he showed 12 days ago and Parramount could still be ahead of his mark based on his impressive victory last time and has to be respected. I`m happy though to take a chance on a couple at much bigger odds given the nature of the race. The consistent Homme Public has done nothing but improve himself and has proven he can still be competitive off this type of mark. They key today though is the drop back in trip in what will likely be a strongly run race, If that is the case the demands of Aintree could just suit. Another who will enjoy a return to Aintree is the locally trained A Different Kind, he has not shown much on his recent starts but is very well handicapped on his best form and I would not worry to much about last time when returning from a layoff after a wind opp. If that has done the trick, he is massively overpriced

Selection Homme Public – A Different Kind

Past winners

General Aintree Stats

Much is said about the horses who ran last time at Cheltenham then running to form at Aintree. Below see`s the breakdown of course last ran at for both handicaps and non-handicaps at the Aintree Grand National meeting. Note the strong performance of Cheltenham runners in graded races compared to handicaps. Also worth noting is the performance collectively of runners in handicaps who ran at a similar course profile to that of Aintree last time out.

Last ran course Aintree handicaps 2 or more winners

Last ran course Aintree non handicaps 2 or more winners

Aintree Top Trainers non handicaps 5 wins

Aintree Top trainers handicaps 2 or more wins